Saturday, December 29, 2012

Boxing Day Storm Punches Out East Coast Rainfall Records

Images (click to enlarge): New daily precipitation records, December 26-27, 2012, CapitalClimate chart from NWS data; 24-hour precipitation ending 7 am EST, December 27, 2012, from NWS

The strong storm which moved up the East Coast on December 26-27 brought record rainfall amounts from North Carolina to Connecticut. National Climatic Data Center reports show 196 daily precipitation records broken and 7 tied for a total of 203 across the U.S. on the day after Christmas. Among major National Weather Service (NWS) reporting locations, the following list shows the new daily record precipitation amounts and the previous records. (Except for Bridgeport and Islip, all of the records were set on December 26.) The oldest record broken was from 1873 at Wilmington NC. The previous records were set just 3 years ago at Cape Hatteras and Atlantic City. On average, the new records exceeded the old ones by 21%.
Location                        Amount    Old Record
Charlotte NC         CLT         1.72    1.70    1938
Wilmington NC        ILM         1.83    1.43    1873
Cape Hatteras NC     HSE         1.79    1.62    2009
Norfolk VA           ORF         2.53    1.93    1890
Wallops Island VA    WAL         2.33    1.28    1969
Blacksburg VA        RNK         1.01    0.75    1973
Salisbury MD         SBY         1.75    1.70    1969
Washington DC        DCA         1.42    1.31    1943
Washington-Dulles VA IAD         1.41    1.00    1969
Atlantic City NJ     ACY         2.60    2.44    2009
Bridgeport CT        BDR         0.55    0.51    1949 (12-27)
Islip NY             ISP         0.53    0.40    1984 (12-27) 

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Snowiest Christmas on Record at Little Rock, Second Highest All-Time December Amount


Image (click to enlarge) from National Weather Service: "Heavy snow falling at the National Weather Service here in North Little Rock. This image was taken just before 10 pm...looking north towards the rain gauges and upper air shelter (where weather balloons are released) in the background."

December 26, 10 AM Update: The final storm total is 10.3" at both Little Rock and North Little Rock. This is a new all-time December single storm and monthly snowfall record (see list below).

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports 9" of snow on Christmas at Little Rock as of midnight:


(These amounts were later updated by 0.1" each from amounts recorded before 6 pm.)

The 9.0" at Adams Field is more than double the old record of 4.2" for December 25. It is also the second highest for any day in December since Little Rock snowfall records began in 1875.

Through December 24, the month to date average temperature at Little Rock is 53.0°, which is 9.4° above normal. At this rate, this would be the second warmest December on record.

The Little Rock record monthly and daily snowfall amounts for December from the National Weather Service:
TOP 10 SNOWIEST DEC
BY MONTHLY SNOWFALL
1. 1963 - 9.8”
2. 1880 – 7.8”
3. 1932 – 7.1”
4. 1917 - 6.6”
5. 1960 - 6.0”
6. 1914 - 6.0”
7. 1876 – 6.0”
8. 1958 - 5.0”
9. 1926 – 4.2”
10.1898 - 4.0”
NORMAL – 0.2”

TOP 10 SNOWIEST DAYS IN DEC
BY DAILY SNOWFALL
1. 22 DEC 1963 - 9.8" 6. 25 DEC 1926 – 4.2"
2. 31 DEC 1960 – 6.0" 7. 04 DEC 1898 – 4.0"
3. 12 DEC 1914 – 6.0" 8. 28 DEC 1876 – 4.0"
4. 19 DEC 1880 – 5.8" 9. 08 DEC 1917 – 3.5"
5. 16 DEC 1932 - 5.5" 10. 22 DEC 2004 – 3.3" 

Oklahoma City Christmas Snowfall 2nd Highest on Record


The 0.6" of snow which fell at Oklahoma City on December 25 was the second highest amount ever recorded there on Christmas. It was, however, only 10% of the 6.5" nearly a century ago in 1914. The monthly average temperature for December to date at Oklahoma City is 46.7°, which is 5.6° above normal.

The list of Christmas snowfalls and amounts on the ground at Oklahoma City, from the National Weather Service:
Years with Snowfall   Snow on Ground
on Christmas Day      on Christmas Morning    
1913 Trace            1913  Trace
1914 6.5 inches       1914  6 inches
1937 Trace            1918  5 inches
1938 Trace            1939  Trace
1939 0.3 inches       1943  1 inch
1948 Trace            1962  Trace
1952 Trace            1975  1 inch
1962 Trace            1983  Trace
1975 0.5 inches       1987  Trace
1987 Trace            1990  Trace
2000 Trace            2002  2 inches
                 2009  14 inches 

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Washington on Track for Second Consecutive Top-10 Warmest December


January 2 Update: Temperatures continued to exceed forecasts through the end of the month. The final average was 45.3°, which was 5.6° above normal. The 31st, at 1° cooler than average, was only the 3rd day all month with temperatures below average.

December 29 Update: Warmer-than-forecast temperatures have pushed the projected December average to 45.2°, displacing 2011 as the 6th warmest on record (chart updated).

Original post:
As of today, the month-to-date average temperature for Washington DC is a toasty (for December) 47.0°. Even with forecast temperatures averaging near seasonal normals for the remaining 6 days of the month, the projected monthly average of 45.0° should be enough to tie with last year for the 6th warmest December since records began in 1870. As noted earlier, the warm December will close out a record warm year by what is virtually guaranteed to be a huge margin.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Chicago Ends Record Snowless Streak;
Other Streaks Continue

Image (click to enlarge): Chicago regional snowfall on December 20, 2012, from National Weather Service

The 0.2" of snow on Thursday (December 20) at Chicago ended the record longest streak without measurable snow. It was also the latest occurrence of a first measurable snow. Other streaks are continuing, including:

- 300th day without a high temperature below freezing (tied for 2nd longest)
- Latest first day of the season with high temperature below freezing (tied for 5th)
- 301st day without an inch or more of snow (8th longest)
- 299th day without an inch of snow on the ground (3rd longest)
- 344th day of the year without a high at or above freezing (tied for 8th)

The average temperature for 2012 to date is also well on the way to being the warmest on record at Chicago.

Here is the complete report from the National Weather Service:
THURSDAY`S STORM IN CHICAGO MANAGED TO MUSTER UP A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHICH OFFICIALLY ENDED CHICAGO`S SNOW
DROUGHT AND ESTABLISHED NEW RECORDS FOR LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL AND LONGEST STRETCH OF NO MEASURABLE SNOWFALL EVER IN
CHICAGO. HOWEVER...THURSDAY STORM HAS LEFT INTACT SOME OTHER
NOTABLE STREAKS FOR CHICAGO.

TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT WERE STILL ABOVE FREEZING...SO THE STREAK
OF DAYS WITHOUT A SUB-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURE CONTINUES IN
CHICAGO. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING MAKES IT THE 300TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING...TYING
2004 FOR THE 2ND LONGEST STREAK. THE FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS STREAK
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEAR THE LONGEST
STREAK WITHOUT A SUB-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE 1878 WHEN
CHICAGO`S OFFICIAL OBSERVATION STATION WAS AT THE CHICAGO OPERA
HOUSE ON THE CORNER OF CLARK AND WASHINGTON IN THE LOOP. HERE ARE
THE TOP 5 LONGEST STREAKS OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A HIGH
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING...

  # DAYS     END DATE
1)  308     12/15/1878
2)  300+    12/21/2012+
    300     12/12/2004
4)  290     12/09/2011
5)  289     12/24/1918

NOW THAT TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE IN CHICAGO WILL OFFICIALLY BE AT
LEAST 33F (THE READING AT MIDNIGHT)...THIS YEAR IN CHICAGO IS NOW
GUARANTEED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST A TIE FOR 5TH PLACE FOR LATEST
FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING.
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 LATEST DATES FOR FIRST DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING...

1) JAN 1 1924
2) DEC 28 1971
3) DEC 25 1918
4) DEC 24 2011
5) DEC 22 1998
   ??? ?? 2012

THE LAST TIME CHICAGO HAS HAD A CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL OF ONE INCH
WAS BACK ON FEBRUARY 24TH...SO TODAY WILL BE THE 301ST CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITHOUT A 1 INCH SNOWFALL MAKING IT THE 8TH LONGEST STREAK
EVER IN CHICAGO. WITH SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF NO SNOW EXPECTED...THIS
YEAR IS BOUND TO MOVE UP IN THE RANKINGS. HERE ARE THE TOP TEN
LONGEST STREAKS WITHOUT A 1 INCH CALENDAR SNOWFALL...

  # DAYS     END DATE
1)  319     01/06/1940
2)  315     12/07/1958
3)  307     12/03/1921
4)  305     01/15/2002
5)  303     01/07/1944
6)  302     12/09/1988
    302     11/16/1927
8)  301+    12/21/2012+
9)  299     12/29/1990
10) 298     12/23/1918

CALENDAR SNOWFALL MAY BE SOMEWHAT DECEPTIVE SINCE THERE WERE LIKELY
EVENTS IN SOME OF THOSE YEARS WHERE A SNOWFALL MAY HAVE CROSSED
CALENDAR DAYS WITH A STORM TOTAL GREATER THAN 1 INCH...BUT EACH
CALENDAR DAY LESS THAN AN INCH RESPECTIVELY. TO REALLY PUT OUR SNOW
DROUGHT IN PERSPECTIVE...IT HAS BEEN 299 DAYS NOW SINCE CHICAGO HAS
OFFICIALLY HAD AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS IS THE 3RD
LONGEST STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. HERE ARE THE TOP 5 LONGEST STREAKS...

  # DAYS     END DATE
1)  313     01/06/1940
2)  302     01/07/1944
3)  299+    12/21/2012+
4)  296     12/12/1988
    296     12/14/1946

ANOTHER INTERESTING STATISTIC IS THAT CHICAGO HAS HAD 344 DAYS WITH
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SO FAR THIS YEAR...WHICH ALREADY PLACES
US TIED FOR THE 8TH MOST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING IN A YEAR. WITH 10 MORE DAYS TO GO THIS YEAR AND MANY OF
THEM LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING 2012 IS LIKELY TO MOVE UP IN THE RANKING
HERE AS WELL. HERE ARE THE TOP 10 MOST NUMBER OF DAYS ABOVE FREEZING
IN A YEAR...

  # DAYS    YEAR
1)  355     1931
2)  353     2006
3)  348     1990
4)  346     1987
5)  345     1878
    345     1992
    345     1998
8)  344     1954
9)  343+    2012 (THROUGH AND INCLUDING 12/21/2012)
10) 342     1882
    342     1911
    342     1921

FINALLY...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN CHICAGO SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS
BEEN 55.4 DEGREES WHICH PLACES 2012 WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF
BREAKING THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST YEAR EVER IN CHICAGO. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST YEAR WAS 1921 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 54.5F. IN ORDER TO HAVE THIS YEAR AVERAGE 54.6F AND BREAK THE
RECORD THE LAST 11 DAYS OF THE YEAR NEED TO HAVE AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF APPROXIMATELY 28.8F. IN ORDER FOR 2012 TO BE TIED FOR
THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD IN CHICAGO THE REMAINING 11 DAYS OF THE
YEAR WOULD NEED TO HAVE AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF APPROXIMATELY
25.5F. 

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

New South Carolina All-Time State High Temperature Record Confirmed


Images (click to enlarge): South Carolina high temperatures, June 29, 2012, from National Weather Service; Location of South Carolina all-time record high temperature, from South Carolina State Climatologist

The South Carolina State Climatologist announced today that the temperature of 113°F observed at Columbia on June 29, 2012 has been officially confirmed as a new all-time record high temperature for the state.
The temperature observation of 113 F recorded that day at the Columbia University of South Carolina National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative site has been approved as the new state of South Carolina record maximum temperature. This value breaks the long-standing record of 111 F first set on September 4, 1925, at Blackville, at Calhoun Falls on September 8, 1925, and tied at Camden on June 27, 1954. South Carolina’s first state temperature record was recognized in 1887, 125 years ago.
Here are some other South Carolina high temperature reports for June 29, from the National Weather Service:
...ASOS STATIONS...

AUGUSTA BUSH APT  GA              106
AUGUSTA DANIEL APT GA             107
ORANGEBURG AIRPORT SC             101
COLUMBIA METRO APT SC             109
COLUMBIA OWENS APT SC             110

...COOP STATIONS...

BAMBERG SC                        106
BARNWELL SC                       105
BATESBURG SC                      106
BISHOPVILLE SC                    106
CEDAR CREEK SC                    107
CHERAW WATER PLANT SC             104
CHESTERFIELD SC                   107
JOHNSTON SC                       113
LITTLE MOUNTAIN SC                107 
LONGTOWN SC                       102
LUGOFF SC                         105 
MANNING SC                        100
MCCORMICK SC                      108
NEWBERRY SC                       104
PELION SC                         104
SALUDA FILTRATION PLANT SC        109
SANDHILL EXP STATION SC           109
USC, COLUMBIA SC                  113  
WIER TOWER, FORT JACKSON SC       108             

...OTHER STATIONS...

CAROLINA SANDHILL SC              106
USFS NEAR JACKSON NUMBER 1 SC     105
JACKSON SC                        105 

Monday, December 17, 2012

Global Temperature Update: 5th Warmest November, 2nd Warmest Fall, 8th Warmest Year to Date

The National Climatic Data Center preliminary analysis for November 2012 shows that it was the 5th warmest November globally since records began in 1880. For meteorological autumn (September-November), it was the 2nd warmest, and for 2012 to date, it was the 8th warmest. Monthly global temperatures have been among their respective top 5 months for each of the 8 months since April. All of the 10 warmest Novembers have occurred in the last 12 years.

From the NCDC:
The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for November 2012 was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (60.4°F). This is the fifth warmest November since records began in 1880. Including this November, the 10 warmest Novembers have occurred in the past 12 years.

The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for September–November 2012 was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F), marking the second warmest September–November on record, behind 2005.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–November 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average.
Images (click to enlarge): Global surface temperature anomalies (°C) for November 2012 and global surface temperature anomalies for November from 1880 through 2012, from NCDC


Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Spectacularly Warm Start to December in U.S.;
Above-Average Temperatures From Coast to Coast

As noted last week, December got an exceptionally warm start in the contiguous 48 states of the U.S., and that trend has continued even more strongly through the first third of the month. Except for 2 weeks in October, nationwide temperatures have been warmer than average every week in 2012 and for 50 of the last 52 weeks.

For December 1-10, temperatures have averaged above normal everywhere from coast to coast. In the calender week ending December 8, of the 215 first-order National Weather Service (NWS) stations reported weekly by the Climate Prediction Center, 1 was missing (Glasgow, Montana), none were equal to or colder than average, only 1 was 1° above average (Key West, Florida), 2 were 2° above, and all the rest were at least 3° above. Over half of the reporting locations were 10° or more warmer than average, and 15 of them across 10 states (AL, AR, IA, IL, IN, KY, MO, MS, SD, TN) had departures of 15° or more for the week.

Even in a year with very warm extremes in January, March, and July, this was some serious heat. For the country overall, the average for all 214 NWS stations was slightly over 10.0° above normal, and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) geographically adjusted average was 8.9° above average.

Temperatures have not only been consistently warm over a wide area, but many individual locations have set records. For the first 10 days of December, new daily record high temperatures have outnumbered record lows by a ratio of 92 to 1. For the 48 contiguous states, the ratio was an incredible 132 to 1, since 3 out of the 10 low records were in Alaska and Hawaii. During the entire week of December 2-8, not a single low temperature record was tied or broken in any of the 50 states, according to NCDC reports. With 3 weeks remaining in the year, the cumulative ratio of heat records to cold records for 2012 has reached 6.0 to 1, more than double the ratio in 2011.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal for 2012, through December 8 (20121208); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Weekly average NWS station temperature departures from normal, week ending December 8, 2012; stations listed alphabetically by state and 3-character station identifier; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- December 1-10, 2012 U.S. temperature departure from average, from High Plains Regional Climate Center
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for November 2011 through December 2012 to date, seasonal ratios for summer 2011 through fall 2012, and annual ratios for 2012 and 2011.
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose. Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Counting Down to Washington's Record Warmest Year: "It Hasn't Warmed Since 2012!"

Record Hot Year Countdown Scorecard

Date  High Low 2012-YTD 1991-YTD Departure to Miss 
12-10 63   49   62.7      61.5    -18.1    
12-11 62   41   62.6      61.4    -19.5 
12-12 47   39   62.6      61.4    -20.7  
12-13 50   35   62.5      61.4    -22.1 
12-14 52   30   62.5      61.4    -23.4 
12-15 54   37   62.4      61.3    -25.2
12-16 52   46   62.4      61.2    -27.6
12-17 55   48   62.4      61.1    -30.5
12-18 62   43   62.3      61.1
12-19 54   36   62.3      61.0
12-20 53   41   62.2      60.9    -41.0  
12-21 59   39   62.2      60.8
12-22 45   35   62.1      60.8
12-23 47   29   62.1      60.7
12-24 41   31   62.0      60.7
12-25 51   34   61.9      60.6 
12-26 45   33   61.9      60.5
12-27 43   37   61.8      60.5
12-28 45   36   61.8      60.4
12-29 42   34   61.7      60.4
12-30 42   32   61.6      60.3
12-31 41   29   61.6      60.2 
(Departure to Miss indicates how much the average temperature must be below normal for the rest of the year in order to avoid setting a new record for warmest year.)

January 2 Update: Thanks to a quirk in calculation methodology, the National Weather Service is rounding down the final average to 61.5°. It was also the record warmest year at Washington Dulles and the 3rd warmest at Baltimore. From the NWS report:
2012 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC WITH AN ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 61.5 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD WAS 60.2 DEGREES IN 1991. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 2012 WAS 3.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE 1981-2010 NORMAL AND WOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE NORMAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE OF ATLANTA...OKLAHOMA CITY AND SAN JOSE...JUST TO NAME A FEW LOCATIONS.

DULLES ALSO EXPERIENCED THEIR WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 57.9 DEGREES IN 2012. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1998...WHEN THE ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 57.1 DEGREES. THE 2012 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 2.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE 1981-2010 NORMAL.

2012 WAS THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR BALTIMORE WITH AN ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 58.6 DEGREES. ONLY 1931 AND 1949 WERE WARMER WHEN THE ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BOTH YEARS WERE 59.2 DEGREES. THE 2012 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 3.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE 1981-2010 NORMAL.

December 31 Update: The 42/32 temperatures yesterday and 41/29 today give a final unofficial yearly average of 61.6°, so the record is broken by the higher amount of 1.4°. (Chart updated)

December 29 Update: Today's high of 42° exceeded expectations by 4°, so the gap to a final yearly average of 61.6° has narrowed to less than 0.004°. A miss of Monday's forecast low of 26° could be the clincher.

December 28 Update: Today's +4° temperature departure means the remaining 3 days need to average -0.5° or warmer to clinch a 1.4° excess over the old annual record. The forecast is for a deficit of 2.1°, however.

December 27 Update: Thanks to continued above-average temperatures, a departure of just 1° in the next 4 days would be enough to raise the final yearly average to 1.4° above the old record.

December 25 Update: Yesterday was just the second day this month with cooler than average temperatures (2° below). Today's high outpaced expectations, however, as so many recent days have done. The year-to-date average is outpacing the previous record by 1.3° at 61.9°. With less than a week now remaining, it is now highly likely that the final yearly average will break the record by that amount. The forecast temperatures for the next 6 days average exactly equal to normal, and the average would have to be at least 5° colder in order to avoid a final average 1.3° above the old record. On the other hand, a departure of just +1.2° for the final 6 days would raise the yearly average by another 0.1°.

December 17 Update: Today's low of 48° through 5 pm is 2° above the normal high. At this point, even if temperatures set new record lows and record cold highs for every day in the next 2 weeks, it will still be a record warm year.

December 15 Update: While it's technically not impossible, Washington would now have to set a new record low temperature every day for the next 16 days in order to avoid setting a new record high annual temperature. (See scorecard above.)

December 13 Update: The temperature departure from normal required to avoid setting a new record is now over 22° for every day for the rest of the year. Since that is clearly not happening soon, we are verging on the realm of physical impossibility to avoid a record. The average of all record low temperatures for every day from the 14th through the 31st is -25.5° relative to normal.

December 12 Update: Yesterday's high/low temperatures went virtually midnight to midnight; the final values of 62°/41° averaged out 11° above normal. Today was considerably colder, but the 47°/39° range was still 3° on the warm side. Using the forecast temperatures for the next 7 days and climatology for the remainder of the month yields a projected yearly average of 61.4°. It would have to average almost 21° below normal for the rest of the month in order to avoid breaking the previous record.

Original post:
With just 3 weeks remaining before New Year's Eve, it's becoming increasingly evident that the climate denialists will have to find a replacement for the tired old talking point, "It hasn't warmed since 1998." As the November climate summary showed, 2012 is well on its way to being the warmest on record in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. That will most likely be true in many individual locations as well, particularly in Washington DC.

While well below the record for December 10, today's high of 63° was 15° above average, and the low so far of 49° is a degree above the normal high. This puts the average for the month over 50°, more than 7° above normal to date. If this were to continue through the end of the month (extremely unlikely), it would be the warmest December on record by over 4°.

The year-to-date average temperature of 62.7° is 1.2° above the pace of the previous record warmest year of 1991. If the remaining 3 weeks average just normal (high/low range of 48/34 currently, declining to 44/29 by the 31st), the final 2012 average (marked "Climo" on the charts) will still be 1.1° above the old record. This is a huge amount for a yearly average, as indicated by the top-10 chart, which shows only a 0.9° difference between the current record and the 10th place year of 2002.

It will certainly be colder between now and the end of the month, but how much colder would it have to be to avoid breaking the record? Assuming today's low remains unchanged through midnight, the remaining 21 days of December would have to average an eye-popping -18.1° relative to normal just to tie with 1991. That means an average high for 3 weeks below 30° and an average low below 16°. While such a frigid blast is not physically impossible, it would take an incredibly intense and fanatical belief in the Ice Age Fairy to think that it will happen.

Stay tuned; we'll keep you posted as this historic event unfolds.

Note: While not unexpected, these results were so extreme the the Climate Capitalist suspected that the data monkeys down at Momma Nature's Weather Grill had gotten into the eggnog a bit early. A cross-check of the daily year-to-date values with the monthly averages and a comparison of the projection with a hand calculator confirmed the data, however.



Sunday, December 9, 2012

Record Daily Snowfall at Minneapolis



Images (click to enlarge): Snowfall amounts in Minnesota and the Minneapolis region, December 8-9, from National Weather Service

December 14 Update: The average temperature at Minneapolis for the first 2 weeks of December is 7.2° warmer than normal. Only 2 days so far have been colder than average. See here for more on this developing Ice Age.

December 10, 10 AM Update:
The final total for Minneapolis was 10.5".

St. Cloud also set records for both snowfall and precipitation:
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 11 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT ST CLOUD MN YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.1 SET IN 1961.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.87 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT ST CLOUD MN YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.36 SET IN 1899. 
Elsewhere in Minnesota and South Dakota:
A TOTAL OF 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED AT THE   
ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY...DECEMBER 9TH. THIS   
BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 0.31 INCHES THAT   
WAS SET ON THIS DATE IN 2009.  

SNOWFALL IN HURON SOUTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY...DECEMBER 8TH...TOTALED   
6.5 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 3.6 INCHES   
SET BACK IN 2008.  
  
THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.52 INCHES ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD DAILY   
RAINFALL FOR DECEMBER 8TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.38 INCHES...   
ALSO SET IN 2008.  
Original post:
The snowfall at Minneapolis today has set a record for December 9. From the National Weather Service:
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 10.2 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT TWIN CITIES MN TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.4 SET IN 1961. 
The all-time record December snowstorm at Minneapolis was 17.1" on Dec. 10-11 2010. That was the 5th largest snowstorm for any month:
1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  
2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  
3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0
4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4 
5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  
6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8 
So far this month, the Minneapolis temperature has been 11.2° above average.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Midwest Mildness Smashes Snowless Streaks;
Records Broken in Nebraska

December 10 Update: The streak continues at Milwaukee, where no precipitation is forecast before Saturday. It also continues at Chicago, Omaha, Lincoln.

December 9 Update:
The Omaha snowless streak has continued through today, bringing the new record to 289 days, 5 beyond the old record.

The Lincoln streak has also extended through today, reaching 300 days.

The Norfolk NE streak ended on December 7 (Friday) with 0.5", missing the record.

Milwaukee has had no snow so far today, which will break the record if it extends to midnight. With the temperature of 37° and light drizzle at 7 pm CST, that seems likely.

The Des Moines record streak ended today at 279 days with 1.4" of snow.

On December 7, the WGN Chicago Weather Center blog reported:
As of Friday evening the steak of days without measurable (0.1 inch) snow at Chicago's official O'Hare International Airport observation site had reached 278 - the last measurable snow occurring back on March 4th. Chicago's record longest consecutive day period without measurable snow (since 1871) was 280 days set back in 1994.
Chicago has received no measurable snow so far today, so it's likely that the record will at least be tied.

Original Post:
The record warmest year to date in U.S. climate history and the ongoing Midwest drought have combined to produce record longest snowless streaks at several locations. The image above from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab (click to enlarge) shows virtually no snow cover in North America south of the Canadian border with the U.S. as of yesterday, December 6.

From the National Weather Service:
Omaha last recorded measurable snowfall on February 24, 2012, with 0.2 inches. The streak of 284 days since that date is tied for the longest snow-free streak on record at Omaha as of December 4, and the streak will be extended at least for the next couple of days. The previous record of 284 days ended on December 30, 2006, which was the latest date of the first measurable snow on record in Omaha. Snowfall records in Omaha go back to the winter of 1884-85, with two missing years (1996-97 and 1997-98).

Lincoln last recorded measurable snowfall on February 13, 2012, with 1.1 inches. The streak of 295 days since that date is tied for the longest snow-free streak on record at Lincoln as of December 4, and the streak will be extended at least for the next couple of days. The previous record of 295 days ended on November 27, 2004. Snowfall records in Lincoln go back to the winter of 1948-49, with one missing year (1996-97).

Norfolk last recorded measurable snowfall on February 24, 2012, with 1.0 inches. The streak of 284 days since that date is the third longest snow-free streak on record at Norfolk as of December 4, and the streak will be extended at least for the next couple of days. The record of 298 days ended on January 13, 2007, which was the latest date of the first measurable snow on record in Norfolk. Partial snowfall records in Norfolk go back to the winter of 1893-94, with complete records beginning in 1946-47.

The long streak without measurable snowfall is due to a combination of ongoing drought conditions and record warmth. 2012 remains the warmest year to date on record at Omaha and Norfolk and the 3rd warmest on record in Lincoln. Also, 2012 is the 2nd driest year to date in Norfolk, the 7th driest year to date in Lincoln, and the 20th driest year to date in Omaha.

Total snowfall for the calendar year 2012 to date in Omaha is 12.8 inches, which is the 5th lowest on record for a calendar year (of all the complete years). For Lincoln, the total snowfall for the calendar year 2012 to date is 13.9 inches, which is also the 5th lowest on record for a calendar year. At Norfolk, the total snowfall for the calendar year 2012 to date is 7.2 inches, which is the lowest on record for a calendar year, in years with complete records.
In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today will tie the record for second longest streak. If it lasts through Sunday, it will break the record:
As of Thursday, December 6th, Milwaukee has gone 277 days since the last day with measurable snow, which is the 3rd longest streak on record. The last time Milwaukee had measurable snow was on March 4, 2012, when 0.9 inches was measured.

Milwaukee will be able to add more days to the streak, since there are only small chances of snow this weekend, with better chances for rain, given the mild temperatures that are forecast.

If Milwaukee makes it through today, with no measurable snow, that will tie for the second longest streak on record (278 days, set in 1908).

If Milwaukee makes it through Saturday, December 8th, with no measurable snow, that will tie for the longest streak on record (279 days, set in 1999).

Finally, if Milwaukee makes it through Sunday, December 9th, with no measurable snow, that will establish the longest streak on record.

The latest date for the first measurable snow in a winter season in the climate record for Milwaukee is December 26, 1888, when 0.1 inches of snow fell. The latest first one inch or greater snowfall in a winter season was on January 20, 1889, when 3.5 inches of snow fell. Thus, both these records occurred in the winter of 1888-1889.
On Tuesday, December 4, the NWS at Des Moines, Iowa, tweeted: With no snow though today, the record will be broken.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

November Update: U.S. Continues on Track for Record Warmest Year


The preliminary national climate review for November from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) shows that the U.S. is virtually certain to set a record for warmest yearly average temperature in 2012. Although November was only the 20th warmest on record (tied with 2004), the accumulated warmth so far this year means that December would have to be the coldest on record by a wide margin to avoid setting a new annual record. How likely is that? Through the first 5 days of this month, there have been over 1100 record high temperatures set or tied in the contiguous 48 states, vs. only 3 record lows. This means that the remaining days of the year would have to be even more spectacularly cold to bring the average down to the old record. According to the latest extended forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, however, the odds that December will be warmer than average through the first 3 weeks are quite good.

The highlights from the NCDC:
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during November was 44.1°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average, tying 2004 as the 20th warmest November on record.

November brought warmer-than-average conditions to the western half of the country. The largest temperature departures from average were centered near the Rockies where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had November temperatures among their ten warmest.

The Eastern Seaboard, Ohio Valley, and Southeast were cooler than average during November. North Carolina tied its 10th coolest November on record, with a statewide-averaged temperature 3.5°F below average.

The January-November period was the warmest first 11 months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 57.1°F was 3.3°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above the previous record warm January-November of 1934. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm.

It appears virtually certain that 2012 will surpass the current record (1998, 54.3°F) as the warmest year for the nation. December 2012 temperatures would need to be more than 1.0°F colder than the coldest December (1983) for 2012 to not break the record.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Early December Heat Sets Mid Atlantic Records

The high temperature of 71° set a new record for December 3 at Washington. The National Weather Service report:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 DEGREES WAS SET AT WASHINGTON   
REAGAN NATIONAL DC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN   
1950.  
The 69° at Dulles and 70° at Baltimore/BWI failed to reach their respective records of 74° and 72° from 1998, however.

Other record reports around the region so far:
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 71 DEGREES IN GEORGETOWN [Delaware] AT 151 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 1950.  

THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS TIED AT THE   
NEW CASTLE COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR WILMINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD   
HIGH WAS ORIGINALLY SET IN 2009.  
To the south, in North Carolina:
THE TEMPERATURE AT THE PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED   
73 DEGREES AT 201 PM. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD MAXIMUM   
TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES THAT WAS SET IN 1970.  
Nationally, as shown in the widget to the left, over 6000 high temperature records have been set or tied so far in 2012.



Sunday, December 2, 2012

Decmber Kicks Off With a Record-Smashing Start: U.S. Heat Records Beat Cold Records 58 to 2

December 3 Update: The number of new high temperature records for the first 2 days of December has now reached 195 in the 48 contiguous states, a ratio of nearly 100 to 1.

8 PM Update: Here are some National Weather Service record reports for December 2, including record high minimums:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT WACO TODAY. THIS   
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 2007.  

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT DALLAS FORT WORTH AIRPORT   
WAS 67 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR DECEMBER  
2ND OF 63 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1922 AND 1993.  

LOCATION       OLD RECORD      NEW RECORD         YEARS OF DATA   
------------------------------------------------------------------     
SHREVEPORT LA  79 IN 1950      80 IN 2012       RECORDS SINCE 1874  
LONGVIEW TX    80 IN 1950      81 IN 2012       RECORDS SINCE 1902  
LUFKIN TX      83 IN 1978      83 IN 2012       RECORDS SINCE 1906 

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEW IBERIA TODAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET IN 2007.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT CORPUS CHRISTI TODAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1964.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 79 DEGREES WAS SET AT GALVESTON TODAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 79 SET IN 2007.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 SET IN 1978.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 SET IN 1970.  

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT AMARILLO REACHED 78 DEGREES TODAY AT 311 PM   
CST. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 76 WHICH WAS SET IN 1995 AND   
1926.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS EQUALED AT CHILDRESS   
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1995.  

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES AT ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT   
TODAY...SET A NEW HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE   
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 59 WAS SET IN 1922. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT   
DROP BELOW 63 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT THIS WILL BE THE NEW RECORD.  
  
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 61 DEGREES AT MATHIS FIELD IN SAN ANGELO   
TODAY...SET A NEW HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE   
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 57 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1951. IF THE TEMPERATURES   
DOES NOT DROP BELOW 61 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT THIS WILL BE THE NEW   
RECORD.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT FAYETTEVILLE   
ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 74 SET IN 1970.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT SMITH   
ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 76 SET IN 1970. 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT REACHED 69   
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 68   
DEGREES FOR THIS DATE SET BACK IN 1970.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCCOOK NEBRASKA   
TODAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 2008.  

THE TEMPERATURE AT THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT IN   
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA REACHED 70 DEGREES AT 139 PM CST. THIS  
BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES SET  
BACK IN 1956. THIS TEMPERATURE WAS 29 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE  
NORMAL HIGH OF 41 DEGREES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  TEMPERATURE RECORDS 
AT GRAND ISLAND DATE BACK TO 1896.   

THE TEMPERATURE AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN HASTINGS NEBRASKA  
REACHED 68 DEGREES AT 326 PM CST. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956. THIS TEMPERATURES WAS  
27 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL HIGH OF 41 DEGREES FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR.  

AT 304 PM THE TEMPERATURE IN LINCOLN REACHED 68 DEGREES. THIS   
ESTABLISHED A RECORD HIGH FOR DECEMBER 2. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 65   
DEGREES SET IN 1988 AND 1956.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD MO   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 72 SET IN 1970.  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT VICHY-ROLLA MO   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1982.  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT WEST PLAINS MO   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1950.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS LAMBERT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT  
TODAY. THE AFTERNOON HIGH WAS 75 DEGREES AT 252 PM.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 74   
DEGREES SET IN 1982.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 58 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE LARAMIE   
WYOMING AIPORT TODAY...DECEMBER 2ND. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF   
56 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1959.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS SET AT ABERDEEN SD   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1998.  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES WAS SET AT PIERRE SD TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 1998.  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60 DEGREES WAS SET AT SISSETON SD   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1941.  
5 PM Update: The map of U.S. daily high temperatures for December 1 from Unisys shows that, except for higher elevations, sub-freezing readings were limited to the immediate Canadian border and northern New England (click to enlarge).

Among the locations in Texas already reporting record temperatures for today are: Corpus Christi (tie), Victoria (tie), Waco (tie), Dallas, Amarillo.

Original post:
December (and meteorological winter) got off to a torrid start in the U.S. yesterday as 58 new high temperature records were set in the contiguous 48 states, vs. only 2 new low temperature records. National Climatic Data Center reports show that 36 high temperature records were set or tied at official National Weather Service (ASOS) reporting locations, mainly in Texas, but also in Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. The preliminary list, from the NCDC (alphabetically by state):
Location                Record Previous/Date Period of record
AZ WINSLOW AP            71    70 12/1/2005   104
KS TOPEKA ASOS           69    67 12/1/1998    64
NE NORTH PLATTE RGNL AP  71    71 12/1/1994    63
NE SIDNEY MUNI AIRPORT   68    65 12/1/1951    44
NM CAVERN CITY AIRPORT   81    80 12/1/1932    72
NM ROSWELL IND AP        80    77 12/1/1995    65
NM ALBUQUERQUE INTL AP   66    66 12/1/1980    81
OK HOBART MUNI  AIRPORT  80    79 12/1/1950   102
OK TULSA INTL AP         77    77 12/1/1950    71
OK BARTLESVILLE MUNI AP  77    77 12/1/1950    87
OK OKLAHOMA CITY AP      77    76 12/1/1982    69
OK PONCA CITY MUNI AP    74    73 12/1/1998    66
TX CORPUS CHRISTI AP     87    83 12/1/2011    66
TX COTULLA LA SALLE AP   86    86 12/1/1978    59
TX CHILDRESS MUNI AP     86    81 12/1/1961    68
TX MINERAL WELLS AP      84    84 12/1/1950    62
TX CLG STN EASTERWD AP   84    81 12/1/1954    61
TX AUSTIN BERGSTROM      84    83 12/1/1954    39
TX VICTORIA ASOS         84    84 12/1/1954    57
TX WINK FAA AP           84    81 12/1/2007    70
TX FT WORTH MEACHAM FLD  83    83 12/1/1950    46
TX WICHITA FALLS MUNI AP 83    82 12/1/1950    88
TX WACO RGNL AP          83    81 12/1/1970    82
TX DAL-FTW WSCMO AP      83    83 12/1/1950    64
TX HOUSTON HOBBY AP      83    82 12/1/1970    71
TX HOUSTON BUSH INTL AP  83    82 12/1/1970    43
TX SAN ANGELO MATHIS     83    82 12/1/1950    65
TX AUSTIN-CAMP MABRY     83    82 12/1/1954    81
TX HONDO MUNI AP         81    81 12/1/1982    42
TX PALACIOS MUNI AP      81    80 12/1/1967    67
TX DALLAS FAA AP         81    81 12/1/1970    82
TX SAN ANTONIO INT'L AP  80    80 12/1/1954    65
TX MIDLAND INTL  AP      80    80 12/1/2007    64
TX LUBBOCK INTL AP       79    76 12/1/1995    98
TX LONGVIEW E TX RGNL AP 79    78 12/1/1982    39
TX EL PASO AP            75    74 12/1/1954    70 

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Pacific Coast Rainfall Record Update: Focus Shifts to Central California;
133-Year San Francisco Record Broken

The focus of record-breaking rainfall shifted southward to central California on Friday. At downtown San Francisco, where climate records began in 1850, the 1.39" broke a 133-year-old record for November 30 of 1.38" in 1879. (The airport's 1.96" failed to reach the record of 2.39" in 1973, however.) Other record rainfall amounts in the region (previous record and date in parentheses):
Livermore       1.85" (0.75", 1982)
Moffett Field   1.40" (1.31", 1973)
Oakland         1.88" (1.58", 1961)
San Jose        1.14" (0.95", 1997)    
Salinas         2.22" (1.49", 1982)
The 2.17" at Santa Rosa was also a record, but climate data there began only in 1998. Records also extended inland. The National Weather Service reports:
SACRAMENTO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT   
1.68 INCHES...OLD RECORD 1.04 IN 1973  
  
STOCKTON AIRPORT  
1.39 INCHES...OLD RECORD 0.64 IN 1997  
  
MODESTO AIRPORT  
0.80 INCHES...OLD RECORD 0.66 IN 1997  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.62 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT FRESNO CA YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.50 SET IN 1982.  

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Record Northern Pacific Coast Rainfall

Image (click to enlarge): Northern California precipitation for 24 hours ending at 5 am PST, November 30, 2012, from National Weather Service

November 30 Update: Crescent City peaked out at 4.14" of rain yesterday, more than doubling the old record. Ukiah almost doubled its old record with 2.48", vs. 1.42" in 1938.

Other record reports from the National Weather Service:
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.22 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT MEDFORD OR YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.25 SET IN 1917.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.6 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT ROSEBURG OR YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43 SET IN 1951.  
Original post:
The heavy rains pounding the Pacific Coast have already set daily records at several locations in northern California and Oregon as of early this evening. The National Weather Service reports:
..RECORD RAINFALL SET AT CRESCENT CITY CA  
A RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2.50 INCHES HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD AMOUNT OF 2.00 INCHES SET IN 1995.  
Since that report was issued at 4 pm local time, over one and a half inches of additional rain has been unofficially reported. Crescent City climate records began in 1894.

At Mt. Shasta, the 1.69" as of 4 pm was closing in on the record of 1.81" from 1932, and since then at least three-quarters of an inch of additional rain has fallen.

In Oregon, Medford's 1.58" as of 4 pm was enough to break the record of 1.25" from 1917.




Washington's 7th Driest November;
Second Biggest October/November Relative Decrease


November 30, 5 PM Update: Added 2012 monthly data and charts.

Original post:
With the mere 0.06" of light rain on Tuesday, November 2012 will close out tomorrow with only 0.60" of precipitation at Washington. That ties it with 1908 as the 7th driest November in 143 years of climate history. The driest was in 1981, when 0.29" was reported.

This exceptionally dry month, following the 5.82" drenching in October, represents slightly less than a 90% month-to-month decrease, second only to the 92% in 1981. In absolute terms, the 5.22" rainfall reduction is the 5th largest on record. The largest absolute October-November decrease was 7.49" in 2005, following the all-time wettest October.

Following wetter-than-average months in September and October, this is now the 9th month of 2012 with below-average precipitation. The November departure of 81% below average is followed by March with a 71% deficit.

The 29.42" total precipitation through the first 11 months is over 7" below the average amount to date. If December rainfall is equal to climatology, the annual amount (marked "Climo" on the chart) will remain the second driest since 2000, behind the 29.95" in 2001. Of the 13 years so far this century, only 4 others have been below average.

November was very dry throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, with nearly all areas below 50% of normal. Large areas from Washington eastward and southward have been below 25% of normal. The 0.71" at Baltimore is less than 22% of normal, and the 1.12" at Dulles is 33% of normal. Richmond's 0.27" is 8% of normal and the 5th driest in records dating back to 1872.






Sunday, November 18, 2012

2012 U.S. Heat Records Exceeding Cold Records at Nearly Double Last Year's Pace



The number of new daily high temperature records in the contiguous 48 states of the U.S. declined below the number of low records in October for the first time in 22 months. Nevertheless, the first half of November has already rebounded to wipe out that deficit. For the month to date, heat records are outnumbering cold records by a ratio of 3.1 to 1. With only 6 weeks left in the year, the 2012 ratio to date of 5.7 to 1 is almost double the 2011 ratio.

Although the ratio of heat records to cold records has declined substantially in the last several months, double-digit ratios in January, March, and July have kept the year-to-date ratio considerably above last year's. Cumulatively, since January 2010 the ratio for the decade stands at 3.4, just slightly below the peak it reached in July of 3.7.

For the year to date, temperatures have averaged above the previous 30-year normal everywhere in the country except along the immediate northern Pacific Coast and part of interior Washington state. Temperatures so far in November have been cooler than normal in most areas east of the Mississippi, particularly from the Ohio Valley through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. Temperatures nearly everywhere else have been warmer than normal.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for November 2011 through November 2012, seasonal ratio for summer and fall 2011, winter, spring and summer 2012, and annual ratio for 2012 and 2011.
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose. Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
- Cumulative ratio of U.S. high temperature to low temperature records from January 2010 through November 2012 to date (logarithmic scale); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- January to October 2012 U.S. temperature departure from 1981-2010 average, from NOAA/ESRL
- November 1-16 U.S. temperature departure from average, from High Plains Regional Climate Center



Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Wind Power's Health Hazards

Wind turbine syndrome might just seem like a collection of unrelated health complaints to the untrained eye, but untrained eye is also a symptom of wind turbine syndrome. Stephen Colbert reports:

Monday, November 12, 2012

Heat Records Set in Northern New York, New England

8 PM Update: Mt. Mansfield VT also set a record:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 55 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOUNT MANSFIELD VT TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 53 DEGREES SET IN 1964.  
Original post:
With Thanksgiving a little more than a week away, temperatures from the upper 60s into the 70s have set daily high temperature records from northern New York into New England. A record was also set at Islip on Long Island, but climate history there began only in 1986. The National Weather Service reports:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1982.  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES WAS SET AT MONTPELIER VT TODAY. THIS   
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 1982...1974...AND 1970.  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VT TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1911.  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY TODAY. THIS   
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1982.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT WATERTOWN NY   
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1964.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1964.  

RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT BANGOR ME....  
A RECORD TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREE WAS SET AT 1258 PM. THIS BREAKS   
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 60 DEGREES SET IN 1940. 

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 2006.    

Thursday, November 8, 2012

November Snowfall Records Broken in New York Area;
Earliest 4"+ at Central Park


As noted here previously, measurable snowfall has been observed as early as late August, September, and October in the interior of the Northeast during the 19th century, but yesterday's storm set November snowfall records at several locations in the New York region. The National Weather Service reports:
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 4.3 INCHES WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.1 SET IN 1878.  

A RECORD NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 4.3 INCHES WAS SET AT   
KENNEDY NY ON NOVEMBER 7 AND NOVEMBER 8 2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD   
NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 3.7 INCHES SET ON NOVEMBER 22   
AND NOVEMBER 23 IN 1989.  

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 4.0 INCHES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY YESTERDAY. THIS IS   
THE FIRST TIME SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RECORDED ON THIS DATE.  
  
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.1 INCHES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY YESTERDAY. THIS   
IS THE FIRST TIME SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RECORDED ON THIS DATE.  
 
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.7 INCHES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY YESTERDAY. THIS IS   
THE FIRST TIME SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RECORDED ON THIS DATE.  

A RECORD NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 6.2 INCHES WAS SET AT   
NEWARK NJ ON NOVEMBER 7 AND NOVEMBER 8 2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD   
NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 5.7 INCHES SET ON NOVEMBER 22   
AND NOVEMBER 23 IN 1989.  

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 5.7 INCHES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ YESTERDAY. THIS   
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 1981.  

A RECORD NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 8.3 INCHES WAS SET AT   
BRIDGEPORT CT ON NOVEMBER 7 AND NOVEMBER 8 2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD   
NOVEMBER SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL OF 6.6 INCHES SET ON NOVEMBER 22 AND   
NOVEMBER 23 IN 1989.  

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.0 INCHES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 SET IN 1953.  
According to unofficial National Weather Service records, this is the earliest 4" snowfall at Central Park since records began there in 1869. The previous record was the 4.4" over 2 weeks later on the 23rd in 1989.



Sandy Precipitation Update: Maryland in Bullseye


Preliminary analysis from the National Climatic Data Center for the precipitation totals from Superstorm Sandy shows that Maryland was in the bullseye. Nearly all of the area of highest rainfall (greater than 5.3") was within the state, with small areas extending into northern Virginia and extreme southwestern Delaware. The highest amounts reported from first-order National Weather Service stations:
Wallops Island WSSF, VA         8.48
Atlantic City, NJ               8.03
Cape Hatteras AP, NC            7.85
Salisbury AP, MD                7.55
Norfolk South, VA               7.33
Baltimore Washington AP, MD     6.83
Atlantic City AP, NJ            6.00
Mount Washington, NH            5.70
Washington Dulles AP, VA        5.65
Washington Reagan AP, VA        4.84  

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Superstorm Sandy Pushes Cleveland Rainfall to October Record

The fringes of Superstorm Sandy reached well into the Midwest, as Cleveland reported a peak wind gust of 68 mph at 11:25 pm on October 29. Heavy rainfall also pushed the monthly precipitation to new records at Cleveland and Mansfield, and near-record amounts were observed elsewhere in Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. From the National Weather Service:
CLEVELAND HOPKINS OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL AS OF 5PM  
TODAY WAS 10.24 INCHES WHICH IS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. THE   
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9.50 INCHES SET BACK IN 1954.  
  
MANSFIELD LAHM AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL AS  
OF 5PM TODAY WAS 7.26 INCHES WHICH IS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.   
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7.02 INCHES SET BACK IN 1919.  
  
YOUNGSTOWN REGIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL  
AS OF 5PM TODAY WAS 5.80 INCHES WHICH RANKS THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER  
ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 5.43 INCHES SET IN 1946.    
  
AKRON CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION   
TOTAL AS 5PM TODAY WAS 5.22 INCHES WHICH IS THE RANKED AS THE 3RD   
WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.  
  
ERIE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OCTOBER 2012 MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL  
AS OF 5PM TODAY WAS 7.98 INCHES AND TIES THE RECORD OF THE 3RD   
WETTEST OCTOBER SET IN 1926.  

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Preliminary Data: Sandy Precipitation Breaks Mid-Atlantic Records

October 30, 7 PM Update: Based on daily records from the National Climatic Data Center, yesterday's rain from Sandy was also the 5th wettest day of any month in Baltimore climate history dating back to 1871. It was the highest precipitation for any day other than in the months of July through September.

October 30, 4 PM Update:
The Washington National daily total of 3.85" is confirmed by the National Weather Service. The amounts at Washington Dulles and Baltimore were all-time daily records for the month of October:
A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 4.25 INCHES WAS SET AT WASHINGTON   
DULLES DC YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR THE 29TH OF 1.03   
INCHES SET IN 2011.   
  
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS ALSO THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN OCTOBER AT   
DULLES. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST OCTOBER DAY WAS 1 OCTOBER 1979...WHEN   
4.06 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.51 INCHES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD FOR THE 29TH OF 1.51 INCHES SET IN   
1973. YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS ALSO THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY IN   
OCTOBER AT BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST OCTOBER DAY WAS 10   
OCTOBER 1922...WHEN 4.38 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.  
Records were also set at Philadelphia, Atlantic City (more than doubling a 104-year-old record), Wilmington, Avoca PA, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Rochester, and Buffalo. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the records at Wilmington and Atlantic City were also all-time October daily records. The Washington National amount was an all-time October record at the current location (76 years). The NWS reports:
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2.68 INCHES WAS SET AT THE   
PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD   
OF 1.72 INCHES SET BACK IN 1953.   

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.79 INCHES WAS SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.33 SET IN 1908.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.79 INCHES WAS SET AT WILMINGTON DE YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.56 SET IN 1953.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.64 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT AVOCA PA TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.39 SET IN 1953.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.72 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH PA   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.19 SET IN 1973.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.93 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.87 SET IN 1935. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.44 INCHES WAS SET AT ROCHESTER NY YESTERDAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 0.71 SET IN 1935.  

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.42 INCHES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY YESTERDAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 1.21 SET IN 1917.  
Original post:
The unofficial total rainfall today of 3.85" at Washington not only breaks the record for October 29 (2.69" in 1885) by over 1", but it is also the highest precipitation so late in the season. It's the second highest daily amount for any day in October, and it's the only time over 3" has been observed later in the year than October 25, except for the 3.10" on December 7 last year.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Post-Tropical Hurricane Sandy Threatens Mid-Atlantic Low Pressure Records

Oct. 30, 2 AM Update: NWS is reporting that the Baltimore low pressure was 964.4 mb, beating the old record by 1.5 mb.

Midnight Update: Preliminary data indicate that Washington bottomed out at 28.63"/969.5 mb, and Baltimore hit 28.49"/964.9 mb. This would break the Baltimore record by 1 mb.

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports that the post-tropical phase of Hurricane Sandy could threaten the modern record for low pressure readings at Washington and Baltimore:
PRELIMINARY INFORMATION ON LOWEST PRESSURE RECORDED AT WASHINGTON DC 
AND BALTIMORE MD...BOTH MEASURED IN THE MARCH 1993 SUPER STORM...

WASH DC... 28.54 INCHES HG 966.5 MB MEASURED AT 23Z ON 13 MARCH 1993 
BALT MD... 28.52 INCHES HR 965.9 MB MEASURED AT 00Z ON 14 MARCH 1993

THESE VALUES WERE ARRIVED AT BY SEARCHING AN INTERNAL DATABASE OF 
OBSERVATIONS MAINTAINED UNOFFICIALLY HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. 
THE DATABASE GOES BACK TO 1929. 

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Arctic Alaska's Autumn Anomaly: Record Warm October at Barrow

November 11 Update: The warm streak has continued into the first third of November. The monthly average through the 11th is 13.7°, which is 9.0° above normal. Only 2 days so far have been below average (-2° on the 3rd and 5th).

November 1 Update: The preliminary monthly report from the National Weather Service shows the average temperature for October 2012 was above expectations at 27.5°. That is 10.3° above normal and 2.0° above the previous record. [Charts updated.]

The excessively warm temperatures were also reflected in the precipitation total which was 72% above normal.

9 PM Update: As of 2 pm local time, the daily high of 27° and low of 26° yield an average which is 17° above normal. This is now the 6th consecutive day with temperatures of at least 15° above normal.

Original post:
In mid-July, a certain high-traffic weather/climate blog was prematurely touting "Coldest July in history for Anchorage?", and this claim was widely echoed in the climate deniosphere. As noted by Tamino at Open Mind and further discussed in the comments, the Question Mark ? was significant, since the final July average missed the record by over 1°F, putting 2012 in 7th place.

Needless to say, no correction was ever published for this misinformation by the perpetrators, and here's something else you're not likely to see from them: With 4 days left in the month, Barrow, on Alaska's Arctic coast is on track to smash its record for warmest October by an unprecedented margin.

The National Climatic Data Center notes that "Barrow is the most northerly First-Order station operated by the National Weather Service." As such, it has a reliable temperature record extending back nearly a century, to 1920. The first 10 days of October started off as the warmest on record, and the warm streak has continued through the remainder of the month. In fact, the departures from normal have increased even further in the past week, reaching an astonishing 21° yesterday, the 27th. All of the past 5 days have been at least 15° above average. So far, every single day of October has averaged above normal except one which was equal, and the forecast indicates that will continue with double-digit departures through the end of the month.

The monthly average temperature so far of 28.0° is currently 9.6° above average. Despite a cooling trend in the next several days, the forecast temperatures through the 31st indicate a final monthly average of 27.3°, or nearly 13° above the October normal of 14.6°. This would be 1.8° above the previous record in 2006, a margin greater than the difference between the current warmest October and the 7th warmest. Note that 7 of the 10 warmest Octobers at Barrow have occurred in the years beginning in 1998.

Daily high temperature records of 41° and 38° were set on the 5th and 6th. Highest minimum temperature records were set on 4 consecutive days from the 3rd through the 6th, when the temperature failed to go below freezing. Additional warm low records were set on the 23rd (28°) and the 27th (27°). Including 3 more high minimums set in 2011, 9 warmest lows have occurred in the past 2 years. By contrast, only one low minimum temperature record has been set at Barrow in the 13 years of this century.

The extraordinary late-season warmth at Barrow reflects an area of above-normal air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean from north of Siberia eastward to the Beaufort Sea near Alaska, where temperatures have averaged as much as 14°C above normal. This extremely warm area corresponds closely with the wide area of open ocean remaining from the record-breaking Arctic ice melting season of 2012.

Images (click to enlarge):
- October temperatures for 2012 vs. previous 10 warmest years at Barrow, Alaska; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- Daily average Barrow temperatures for October 2012 vs. normal; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data
- Northern Hemisphere temperature departures from normal for October 1-24, 2012 from NOAA/ESRL
- Arctic sea ice extent, October 15, 2012 vs. historical median (1979-2000) from National Snow and Ice Data Center

Saturday, October 20, 2012

U.S. Weekly Temperature Below Average First Time in 10 Months


Preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) show that the temperature for the contiguous 48 states of the U.S. in the week ending October 13 was cooler than average for the first time in 10 months. After 43 consecutive warm weeks, the national average temperature was 1.8° below normal. This also brings the month-to-date temperature for October to -0.9° relative to average. For the week, cool temperatures prevailed in 5 out of 9 climate regions (Northeast, East North-Central, Central, West North-Central, and South). Both the Central and East North-Central were near to more than 5° below average.

CapitalClimate analysis of unadjusted data from 215 National Weather Service stations shows that 83% of locations were cooler than average, while only 13% were warmer.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal, weeks ending June 4, 2011 (20110604) through October 13, 2012 (20121013); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Average U.S. temperature departure from normal (°C) for October 7-13, 2012
from NOAA/ESRL

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.